Northeast Intelligence Network

US Threats - Travel

Threats To Our Airliners

by 

Sean Osborne, Network Analyst

Director's Note: The following assessment is extremely important as the US enters into its busiest season for the airline travel industry. Readers are urged to consider the number of flights and holiday travelers between now and Christmas. --Douglas J. Hagamnn

The use of MANPAD's against aircraft flying to/from BIAP (Baghdad International Air Port) is distressing in the extreme. The region is literally saturated with American combat power yet these attacks continue unabated. The firing solution and angle-of-attack for MANPADS such as the SA-7 Grail is well known. The attack against the DHL cargo aircraft at BIAP is the most recent example. The attempt against the EL AL airliner in Kenya last year is another. Both were targeted on their departures (i.e. engines on full throttle-up giving the SA-7 an optimum condition for positive IR seeker lock-on.) Again, the multiple attacks with MANPADS at BIAP is in an area of massive US combat presence. Both attacks cited above with SA-7's utilize very aged technology. It must be assumed that al Qaeda and its supporters possess the SA-18 in their arsenal and other more advanced MANPADS weapons in addition to the SA-7.

     This begs the question about civil air travel within the US homeland and elsewhere where there is no such defensive capability in place. Knowing which runway(s) is/are utilized for departures is the only requirement for a terrorist planning such an attack. Acquisition of this information requires nothing more than a pair of observant eyes. Flight 800 and AA 587 are recent examples of publicly unresolved disasters (attacks IMHO) which fit the same attack profile I outline here, particularly AA 587.Need I say more about this threat?

     The Israeli government is pro-actively dealing with the threat. Is the US government or the FAA or any other cognizant authority dealing with this very real threat here at home? I wonder. We have the recent example of a college student who was able to single-handedly place terrorist weaponry aboard civilian aircraft with total success. His mission was accomplished and was undetected despite his plan being announced ahead of time to federal authorities. This was accomplished TWICE within hours of the 9/11 anniversary. Terrorists are not so accommodating.

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